Just 60 days prior when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while his coach scolded him over missing a through-ball. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if Rogers' form were a symptom or a cause of Villa's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, however, the sideline response was much more joyous. As the in-form star curled home his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his jacket, opened his arms and roared. The team were on their way to ten wins in a row , despite not winning their opening six matches, find themselves a mere three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Hopefuls?
This is a particularly tough proposition to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of Villa, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, their performances haven't been wholly dominant this season, while the wins have accumulated.
As per the data, in only two games have Villa registered an xG notably superior than the other team. For a club which has strung together ten consecutive victories, they appear curiously susceptible – however at the moment the margins are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy looks like to trade blows with an opponent before hoping their star man to save the day with two clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it happened in London, and it happened against the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from an exquisite effort, arced just inside the post from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of his first capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opponents had more shots and more shots on target. Villa have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge the club must confront in the near future. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting the football into the top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Could it be another reality in which, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs might still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The winger could transform into the player he resembled in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Maybe within that lies the seeds for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, few could imagine the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a title charge while looking like an essential England player.
The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. As the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and should be relished.
